Corn genetics determine yield and yield potential.

Blog by Roger Rudolph, Spectrum Sales and Marketing Manager

Since Scott Johnson’s blog, Trend-in-Corn-Yields-1866-to-2016, published on Feb 16, 2017, we’ve had several discussions and received excellent feedback. So, I thought I’d revisit this blog and add my two cents to the discussion. From the graph below, I’ll discuss further evaluation of the graph corn yield trend lines and the R², and the factors in corn production practices over the years that have impacted these trend lines besides corn breeding. Hopefully I will get the wheels turning to evaluating profitable corn production in today’s marketplace environment.

Slope of trend line corn yield equals corn yield improvement Bu/Ac/Year, or the number in front of the x in the slope equation, so;

The difference in yield improvement between Single Cross era and Single Cross w/ Traits is just 0.05 Bu/Ac/Yr.  Does that surprise anyone?  It shouldn’t… Traits protect yield from insects and allow use of post herbicides.  The perception is that if a hybrid doesn’t have traits, it won’t yield. (I think mass marketing has created this perception), the reality is that corn genetics determine yield and yield potential.  My concern is seed industry claiming too much of the increased yields from traits in their valuations of their products, and the trait providers dictate so much to the partner seed companies, that the grower does not have as much choice as he thinks he does.

We know we’ve had improvement in these areas of corn production in the last 20 years as well:
Increased corn populations, seed treatments, seed placement, better singulation, precision planting, fertilization levels, micro nutrients utilized more, better fertility placement, etc.…

Some agronomists think the increasing yields are from more corn populations almost entirely. Who is not planting 20% higher populations than Dad /20 years ago? Probably most, would be going from 27,000 to 32,000.

What is R² value Mean?

The R² value indicates the variability in corn yields to the trend line. (1.00 value indicates all data points on the trend line, lower R² values the greater the variability in yields from trend line, bigger range of yields).  Let’s look at R² values for the different eras.

The wider swings in corn yields from the trend line yields for the Single Cross w/ Traits, doesn’t fit for me. I would think with 70-80% of corn acres having insect protection that corn yields would not fluctuate as much and have a R² closer to 1.00.  Traits protect yield, right??  Maybe this indicates less genetic diversity?  We definitely have more genetic diversity in Double Cross hybrids than Single Cross hybrids, 4 parent inbreds vs 2 parent inbreds for Single Cross era.  Since the seed industry is doing more corn breeding in the laboratory in the last 15-20 years, does this mean less genetic diversity in the hybrids in the Single Cross w/ Traits era??  I don’t know the answer to that one.

I don’t believe the pending mergers of the Big Ag companies will increase competition in the marketplace, increase innovation and solutions, as stated several times, or be good for the grower.  I believe the proposed mergers will benefit the shareholders of these companies more than the grower/customer.

If anyone wants to support an Independent Corn Breeding company with the freedom to operate without the encumberments of a trait license agreement, I would look forward to discussing which Spectrum Non-GMO hybrids fit your operation for this year or next.   866-400-9468